Archive for September, 2007

Darwin on Steroids

Updated: There’s little doubt that the human body has changed markedly over the past century. One glance at movie photographs of 50 years ago shows how human physiology has evolved in the last half century. We’re compressing evolution. You might call this phenomenon “Darwin on Steroids.”

Although one could argue that the physical attributes of movie stars merely mirror the changing attitudes of casting agents, a casual observation of teens attending your nearest high school will confirm that major changes are under way.

The first thing you’ll notice is that high school kids today are much taller. In March 2005, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that men and women alike had added an inch in height since 1960 — with the average American woman now standing 5-foot-4 and the average male hitting 5-foot-9-1/2.

That’s as puny as it sounds: the U.S. is coming up short in the height deparment. America used to be the tallest country in the world. But as Reuters reported in July, the average American’s height reached a plateau after World War II, and is gradually falling behind the rest of the world as it continues to grow taller.

By the time Baby Boomers reached adulthood in the 60s, most northern and western European countries had caught up or surpassed the U.S. Today, young adults in Japan and other prosperous Asian countries now stand nearly as tall as Americans do.

There are other changes too. Americans are far more overweight than just 25 years ago. In 1980, 46% of U.S. adults were overweight, compared to 65% today. And a third of U.S. adults are now obese, compared with 23% in 1994.

The acceleration of change: The human body is morphing rapidly, growing taller and more overweight in some instances. Changes are most evident when comparing old portraits to new.

What you’re witnessing is an acceleration of evolution. The human body is quickly adapting to changes in lifestyle, diets and perhaps even metaphysical attitudes. Although Americans are as active today as they were in 1970, according to a 2003 Harvard University study, they’re eating 200 calories more per day than they did just 10 years ago, which can add 20 pounds a year.

While the U.S. grew horizontally, the rest of the world reached for greater heights instead. In Holland, the tallest country in the world, the typical man now measures 6 feet (1.80m), a good two inches more than the average American. Even residents of formerly communist East Germany are taller than Americans today.

In 1850 the opposite was true: western Europeans were 2-1/2 inches (6cm) shorter than their American brethren. Evolutionary changes are not just limited to height. Japanese women are becoming curvier and taller as their diet, influenced by Western standards, increasingly includes more red meat and dairy products.

Why is this important? The reason is simple: taller people make more money. Studies have shown that an extra inch (2.5cm) of height can be worth about $1,000 extra a year in wages, after accounting for education and experience. If you’re 6 feet tall (1.80m), you likely earn about $6,000 more than an equally qualified 5-foot-6-inch person (1.70m).

According to a BusinessWeek article published in November 2005, ongoing surveys of more than 17,000 people in Britain and 12,000 in the U.S. conducted by Daniel Silverman, an assistant economics professor at the University of Michigan, found that even short teenagers who grow into normal-size adults are doomed to earn up to 13% less in the workplace than people who were tall as teens. This “height premium,” Silverman says, is comparable to wage gaps caused by gender and race.

On May 7, 2007, The Wall Street Journal noted that the average Japanese woman’s hips, at 35 inches (89cm), are an inch wider than those of women a generation ago. And women in their 20s wear bras at least two sizes larger than their mothers, says Wacoal, Japan’s largest lingerie company.

In the past 20 years, the shoe size of the average American woman has grown a full size to an 8 or 9, up from a 7 or 8. More than one-third of women now wear a size 9 or larger, up from 11% in 1987, The NPD Group reported in July 2004.

A shift in lifestyle lead to a big jump in childhood obesity, which has reached 20%. Although the caloric intake of young adults and teenagers has risen only 1% in the past two decades, physical activity has declined 13%, an analysis of federal statistics by the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill found in February 2005.

Since 1995, Harris Interactive has asked adults to name their two or three favorite leisure-time activities. Eight years ago, 38% of replies involved activities requiring exercise, including fishing, gardening, playing sports, swimming, walking, hunting, bicycling, hiking, running or dancing. Now only 29% of replies involve exercise.

According to a multi-country study, U.S. teens were more likely to eat fast food and snacks, drink sugary sodas, and most likely to be driven to school and other activities, contributing to a more sedentary lifestyle, reports the U.S. Maternal and Child Health Bureau. In fact, fast-food consumption increased fivefold among children since 1970, says a January 2004 Children’s Hospital Boston study.

Japanese lingerie maker, Wacaol, pictured above, reports that Japanese women’s bust sizes are increasing. They’re not alone. Since the 1920s, British women’s busts have grown four inches (10cm), going from a B cup to a C.

At the September 2002 Leicester science festival, Professor Andrew Prentice, a nutrition expert from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, remarked that people are now undergoing changes similar to those occurring two centuries ago, when Europeans shot up in height by 12 inches (30cm) or more. “I’m talking about the remarkable change that has occurred in man’s evolution in just the twinkling of an eyelid,” the BBC quoted Prentice as saying.

Although most of the baseball-loving world could care less that Barry Bonds took steroids, there’s no question that in less than 20 years, Bonds morphed from a 185-pound (84kg) Pittsburgh Pirate to a hulking, 230-pound (104kg) Giants outfielder, who, suddenly at age 37, hit a record-setting 73 home runs.

Although Bonds claims he’s not on steroids, Darwin clearly is.

shock

Ubertrend: Time Compression
Value Propellants: Survival, Speed, Beauty, Gluttony

12 comments September 30th, 2007

Social Engagement Media

A major trend is sweeping through our media universe. It began innocently enough with Friendster in 2003, which came from nowhere to become the celebrated buzz of 2003. But Friendster was quickly toppled from its social network pedestal by an even faster moving phenom: MySpace.

When Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. acquired MySpace in July 2005 for $580 million, the move received a lukewarm reception in some financial circles. Now that MySpace has more than 200 million member accounts, making the popular social net larger than Brazil, the fifth largest country in the world, and each account costing a mere $2.90 each, those nay-saying nitpickers are signing a totally different tune.

But there’s an even faster-growing social net among us. Facebook, which was conceived as a university-only digital meet market, unlike MySpace, which traced its roots to music trendsetters, has soared from 10 million in September 2006, just prior to Facebook opening its ivory gates to everyone, to 40 million this week, more than quadrupling its member base.

If your inbox is anything like mine, it’s being clogged by Facebook “friend” requests, reflecting the groundswell in popularity that this social network is currently enjoying. How is it that an upstart was able to wrest away the crown of “hotness” from its massive social brother?

Simplicity is clearly a core Facebook strength. Unlike MySpace’s cluttered spaghetti-code interface, Facebook is a breath of fresh air, far more elegant and easier to use. While Facebook wins in the digital cosmetics department, it still needs to create that essential “community” feeling, which neither MySpace or Facebook possess, perhaps due to a lack of content leadership from above.

Still, when Facebook CEO and Founder, Mark Zuckerberg announced on May 25 that Facebook would open its interface to outside developers, thereby allowing third-party applications to enhance the Facebook experience, the Palo Alto-based company discovered an age-old technology tactic that dates back to dBASE days, for those who can remember that far back.

Zuckerberg dubbed the move of opening up the Facebook architecture through an “API” (application developer’s interface), akin to creating a “Social Operating System,” or SOS. The tactic has worked beautifully. When I attended the Facebook Developer’s Garage a few weeks ago, the electric atmosphere in the way-too-small room at company headquarters had the air of a revivalist meeting.

Facebook’s popularity is being propelled by the people in this room, Facebook application developers, who overwhelmed Facebook’s corporate office in Palo Alto at the “Facebook Developer Garage.”

That feeling of exalted exuberance was cemented by “Lee,” from venture capital firm Alta Partners, who exhorted the troops with a cheer that knocked the room down: Join the Facebook bandwagon. This company will IPO in late 2008 with a valuation of more than $100 billion! Tying your fortunes to Facebook will pay off handsomely for anyone smart enough to ride on the company’s coattails.

While casual observers might see this type of cheerleader chant as only another manifestation of irrational exuberance, they’re forgetting that Facebook, and all those thousands of other social networks already online or in the planning stages, are being propelled by a fundamental shift in the rules of social interaction.

What Bebo, Friendster, MySpace, Piczo and the Facebook avant garde have already discovered is that social networks can put network building on steroids, giving you a Barry Bonds-like edge in a world of wimpy non-social netters. And if the Internet can be blamed, in some respects, for driving many a consumer into an asocial cocooning corner, it’s quite evident that social networking is the anti-dote to uncivilization, to paraphrase that Club Med’s famous tagline.

It’s this fundamental shift that makes social networking so incredibly exciting. It’s also what is fueling an onslaught of new social nets, aimed at every conceivable niche. Already, Johnson & Johnson has forked over more than $10 million for social network Maya’s Mom. And VantagePoint Venture Partners announced that I had led a round in social network Multiply, aimed at boomers.

We think this only the beginning. What will make this trend explode is the discovery of marketers that of social engagement marketing, the inevitable outflow of the social engagement media world will fundamentally help rewrite the rules of social engagement.

It’s that kind shift in consumer values that will help vault this trend into the global limelight. If Lee’s forecast is any indication, social networking could one day make Google’s IPO look like a day at the beach. Such a feat can only be possible if Facebook succeeds in changing some fundamental social interaction values.

And there’s plenty of evidence that such a change is already underway. About 260,000 daily users send a virtual toast via the “Booze Mail” application What might want one to send others a drink they can’t consume. Well, it may find its roots in a college-driven prank, but like the old saying goes, “it’s the thought that counts.”

Facebook already offers more than 4,000 applications, since announcing its program May 25. “Booze Mail” lets you send friends a drink. Apps like this, and others like SuperPoke! and FunWall, point to a revolution in social engagement.

There’s no question that our social dialog is undergoing a sea change shift, as the foregoing suggests. We can’t wait to see how the world will evolve around this new social interaction. Social engagement media have arrived and things will never be the same.

cool

Add comment September 13th, 2007


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